Lucubrations

\Lu`cu*bra"tion\, n. [l. lucubratio;cf. F. lucubration.] 1. The act of lucubrating, or studying by candlelight; nocturnal study; meditation. 2. That which is composed by night; that which is produced by meditation in retirement; hence (loosely) any literary composition.


Tuesday, July 08, 2008

I just read an article that says that an Iraqi Security Adviser is demanding a timetable for the US to withdraw its forces as part of a new security deal. While this seems a little premature to me, it brings up an interesting strategy. If President Bush, agreed to a scheduled withdrawal of our forces, he could potentially save face by doing so at the request of the Iraqi government. This would allow him to say that they came in to save a people, and then left when they were asked. It legitimizes the Iraqi government by our conceding to their wishes even if we disagree (somewhat). It gives definite closure as part of Bush's legacy. It provides a way to bring our people home and if the country falls into more chaos after we left, it is not our fault because they took responsibility for their own actions. Plus if they can see that we are leaving, it will allow for more reconciliation between the factions that like or dislike us. I also would imagine that the Iraqi government would be more willing to allow us to put in a long term base there (such as we have in S.Korea or Germany) if they see that we are not intent on controlling them.

And as a last little twist, if Bush were to agree to the withdrawal (especially in October) it would undercut one of Obama's main planks. Bush could claim the credit for setting up the withdrawal (I'm sure everyone else would try to claim the credit also) but then no one would vote for Obama because he was in favor of withdrawal because withdrawal had already been agreed to. It certainly wouldn't make any conversions, but it might sway a few swing voters.